Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy is not a rookie by any stretch of the imagination. Even though he missed all of last season with a torn meniscus, McCarthy spent the year learning Kevin O’Connell’s scheme, studying defenses, and watching Sam Darnold operate the Vikings offense at a high level. He has yet to take an NFL regular-season snap, but with him being around the team and getting a head start on the playbook, he’s likely further ahead than any other rookie who was just acquired in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Despite his unique situation, I thought it’d be an interesting idea to look at some of the recent rookie quarterbacks J.J. McCarthy has been compared to since the draft to hopefully get a better glimpse of what his first year might look like. McCarthy will start his career with a season of learning under his belt, not to mention weapons like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hockenson. Still, it’s reasonable to expect some early career growing pains, and looking at these seasons could give us a glimpse at what these growing pains might look like.
Daniel Jones
Starting with a comparison that comes from Walter Football before the draft, we have J.J. McCarthy being compared to Daniel Jones. Vikings fans are likely very familiar with Daniel Jones at this point, with him eliminating the Vikings from the playoffs in 2022 and more recently becoming a member of the team for a brief stint in the 2024 season. Jones had an abysmal rookie season with 3,027 yards passing, 24 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and 18 fumbles.
While the comparison may seem scary on its surface, there are plenty of takeaways to be had. Both McCarthy and Jones had 22 touchdowns in their final years in college, and neither had particularly flashy numbers throughout their collegiate careers. This may have been what inspired the comparison, but the context of McCarthy operating in a run-heavy offense has to be considered. Additionally, the Giants’ offense that Daniel Jones operated within during his rookie year featured Darius Slayton, Golden Tate, and Sterling Shepard. That’s a far cry from the situation McCarthy is stepping into. All that considered, McCarthy’s upcoming season likely won’t look very similar to Jones’, but could it have looked like that if he were coming into a worse situation as a rookie? It’s hard to say for sure.
Sam Darnold
A recent PFF article listed both the ceilings and floors of every second-year NFL quarterback. For McCarthy, the floor was a familiar face: our good friend Sam Darnold. Darnold’s storybook season in Minnesota was one that fans will always remember, but the start of his career was much shakier. In his first year with the Jets, Darnold threw for 2,865 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. The turnover bug is something that Darnold has been unable to shake throughout his career, but his improvements in decision-making and his deep ball are quite notable. Vikings fans will hope that McCarthy is more efficient with fewer turnovers in his rookie year. However, if McCarthy plays like a veteran Darnold did last year, the sky is the limit for the 2025 season.
Joe Burrow
In the same PFF article, the ceiling given is Joe Burrow. We all know what Joe Burrow has turned into with multiple Pro Bowl selections and even a Super Bowl appearance in 2021, but what did the start of his career look like? Despite entering the 2020 season as the starter, Burrow only started 10 games in his rookie year due to an ACL/MCL tear. During those starts, there were glimpses of greatness with Burrow throwing for 2,688 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. He took a major leap the next year, and the rest is history.
Vikings fans may be satisfied with this kind of rookie season (minus the season-ending injury, of course), but the situation for Burrow in Cincinnati was quite different than McCarthy’s in Minnesota. McCarthy will enter this season at the age of 22, while Burrow was 23 when he made his first start for the Bengals. Additionally, Burrow’s weapons were much weaker than McCarthy’s will be, with Ja’Marr Chase not being drafted until next season. While the ceiling of Joe Burrow is something that McCarthy can shoot for, his rookie season may look quite different than Burrow’s considering the circumstances.
What Should We Expect?
After looking at these rookie seasons, it’s safe to say that nobody knows exactly what to expect. A young quarterback inheriting a 14-win team with some of the best receiving weapons in the sport has never happened in NFL history, so it’s impossible to predict exactly what the upcoming season will look like. Even so, there are some similarities between the players that McCarthy was compared to and their rookie seasons. Many of them struggled with turnovers as they adjusted to the speed of the NFL, and they all improved as their careers progressed. Our takeaways from this can be that McCarthy will likely go through growing pains, but his career will not be defined by his performance this season. At only 22, J.J. McCarthy is still growing into his role in the Vikings offense, so balancing high expectations with a healthy amount of patience will be key for Vikings fans eager to see if they’ve finally got their young franchise quarterback.
